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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
1
8
0
0
0
0
26
10
3
39
33
10
4
47

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
1
8
37
20
2
59
26
10
3
39
70
30
6
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
0
2
17
0
0
0
0
55
21
6
83
70
21
9
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
1
8
35
19
2
56
25
9
3
37
66
28
6
100

hitrate: 0.213 hitrate: 0.283
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 0.00 9.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 1.97 6.50
Heidke skill score: -0.181 Heidke skill score: -0.075
true Heidke skill score: 0.028 true Heidke skill score: 0.071
Kuipers skill score: -0.181 Kuipers skill score: -0.075
true Kuipers skill score: 0.050 true Kuipers skill score: 0.114
threat score:
0.206 0.000 0.075
threat score:
0.099 0.290 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.049 0.000 -0.009
equitable threat score:
0.026 0.063 0.020
probability of detection:
0.212 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.100 0.667 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.125 0.000 0.923
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.125 0.661 0.923
samples: 47 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 44.34 %coverage: 100.00