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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
2
2
18
0
0
0
0
29
10
3
42
43
12
5
60

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
2
2
18
29
11
6
46
29
10
3
42
72
23
11
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
3
3
30
0
0
0
0
48
17
5
70
72
20
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
2
2
17
27
10
6
43
27
9
3
40
68
22
10
100

hitrate: 0.283 hitrate: 0.264
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.42 0.00 8.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.00 3.82
Heidke skill score: -0.075 Heidke skill score: -0.104
true Heidke skill score: 0.014 true Heidke skill score: 0.018
Kuipers skill score: -0.075 Kuipers skill score: -0.104
true Kuipers skill score: 0.023 true Kuipers skill score: 0.028
threat score:
0.298 0.000 0.068
threat score:
0.184 0.190 0.060
equitable threat score:
0.032 0.000 -0.012
equitable threat score:
0.028 0.021 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.326 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.194 0.478 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.000 0.929
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.761 0.929
samples: 60 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 56.60 %coverage: 100.00