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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200003

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
16
38
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
11
13
16
40

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
16
38
29
25
12
66
0
2
0
2
40
38
28
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
28
40
95
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
5
28
33
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
10
15
36
27
24
11
62
0
2
0
2
38
36
26
100

hitrate: 0.275 hitrate: 0.340
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.45 0.00 0.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.95 1.74 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.087 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.009 true Heidke skill score: -0.037
Kuipers skill score: -0.087 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.009 true Kuipers skill score: -0.036
threat score:
0.289 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.164 0.316 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.020 0.000 -0.047
equitable threat score:
-0.063 0.024 -0.018
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.275 0.658 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.711 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.711 0.621 1.000
samples: 40 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 37.74 %coverage: 100.00