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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200005

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
9
11
29
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
5
9
11
14
34

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
9
11
29
24
24
23
71
0
2
3
5
33
35
37
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
26
32
85
0
0
0
0
0
6
9
15
26
32
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
9
10
28
23
23
22
68
0
2
3
5
31
33
35
100

hitrate: 0.353 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.22 0.00 0.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.88 2.03 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.029 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.093 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.029 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.102 true Kuipers skill score: 0.021
threat score:
0.310 0.000 0.188
threat score:
0.170 0.293 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.062 0.000 0.068
equitable threat score:
-0.003 0.006 0.033
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.214
probability of detection:
0.273 0.686 0.081
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.690 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.690 0.662 0.400
samples: 34 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 32.38 %coverage: 100.00