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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200006

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
15
27
0
0
0
0
0
5
10
15
4
13
25
42

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
15
27
16
28
21
65
0
5
10
15
20
41
46
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
19
36
64
0
0
0
0
0
12
24
36
10
31
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
14
25
15
26
20
61
0
5
9
14
19
38
43
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.75 0.00 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.35 1.59 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.082 true Heidke skill score: 0.079
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.110 true Kuipers skill score: 0.083
threat score:
0.148 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.093 0.359 0.196
equitable threat score:
0.058 0.000 0.051
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.058 0.080
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.200 0.683 0.217
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.852 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.852 0.569 0.333
samples: 42 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 39.25 %coverage: 100.00