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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200007

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
3
15
0
0
0
0
6
5
2
13
10
13
5
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
3
15
23
29
27
79
6
5
2
13
33
42
32
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
29
11
54
0
0
0
0
21
18
7
46
36
46
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
3
14
21
27
25
74
6
5
2
12
31
39
30
100

hitrate: 0.214 hitrate: 0.327
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 2.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.45 1.88 0.41
Heidke skill score: -0.179 Heidke skill score: -0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.083 true Heidke skill score: -0.067
Kuipers skill score: -0.179 Kuipers skill score: -0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.096 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.190 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.091 0.315 0.047
equitable threat score:
-0.087 0.000 -0.023
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.033 -0.048
probability of detection:
0.400 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.121 0.690 0.062
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.733 0.000 0.846
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.733 0.633 0.846
samples: 28 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 26.17 %coverage: 100.00