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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200009

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
3
8
0
0
0
0
6
10
14
30
7
14
17
38

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
3
8
19
29
21
69
6
10
14
30
26
43
38
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
11
8
21
0
0
0
0
16
26
37
79
18
37
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
3
7
18
27
20
64
6
9
13
28
24
40
36
100

hitrate: 0.395 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 0.00 1.76
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 1.60 0.79
Heidke skill score: 0.092 Heidke skill score: 0.117
true Heidke skill score: 0.005 true Heidke skill score: 0.055
Kuipers skill score: 0.092 Kuipers skill score: 0.117
true Kuipers skill score: 0.004 true Kuipers skill score: 0.053
threat score:
0.071 0.000 0.424
threat score:
0.030 0.349 0.259
equitable threat score:
-0.038 0.000 0.030
equitable threat score:
-0.030 0.023 0.077
probability of detection:
0.143 0.000 0.824
probability of detection:
0.038 0.674 0.368
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.000 0.533
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.580 0.533
samples: 38 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 35.51 %coverage: 100.00