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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200011

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
0
0
0
0
2
2
7
11
5
4
7
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
31
34
25
90
2
2
7
11
36
38
32
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
13
0
31
0
0
0
0
13
13
44
69
31
25
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
29
32
24
85
2
2
7
10
34
36
30
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.415
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.37 0.34
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: 0.123
true Heidke skill score: 0.377 true Heidke skill score: 0.098
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: 0.123
true Kuipers skill score: 0.349 true Kuipers skill score: 0.095
threat score:
0.429 0.000 0.636
threat score:
0.079 0.362 0.194
equitable threat score:
0.264 0.000 0.354
equitable threat score:
0.036 0.028 0.113
probability of detection:
0.600 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.083 0.895 0.219
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.622 0.364
samples: 16 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 15.09 %coverage: 100.00