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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200012

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
4
1
14
0
0
0
0
2
4
4
10
11
8
5
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
4
1
14
51
22
10
83
2
4
4
10
62
30
15
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
17
4
58
0
0
0
0
8
17
17
42
46
33
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
4
1
13
48
21
9
78
2
4
4
9
58
28
14
100

hitrate: 0.542 hitrate: 0.327
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.27 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 2.77 0.67
Heidke skill score: 0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.290 true Heidke skill score: 0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.295 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.562 0.000 0.364
threat score:
0.134 0.242 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.270 0.000 0.215
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.019 0.133
probability of detection:
0.818 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.145 0.733 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.357 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.357 0.735 0.600
samples: 24 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 22.43 %coverage: 100.00