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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
3
10
20
0
0
0
0
10
9
7
26
17
12
17
46

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
3
10
20
21
21
21
63
10
9
7
26
38
33
38
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
7
22
43
0
0
0
0
22
20
15
57
37
26
37
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
3
9
18
19
19
19
58
9
8
6
24
35
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.304 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.18 0.00 1.53
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 1.91 0.68
Heidke skill score: -0.043 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: -0.103 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: -0.043 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: -0.099 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.233 0.000 0.194
threat score:
0.137 0.280 0.123
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.000 -0.099
equitable threat score:
0.001 0.034 -0.043
probability of detection:
0.412 0.000 0.412
probability of detection:
0.184 0.636 0.184
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.650 0.000 0.731
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.650 0.667 0.731
samples: 46 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 42.20 %coverage: 100.00