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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
3
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
5
3
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
3
14
42
29
23
94
0
0
0
0
48
34
26
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
43
36
21
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
36
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
3
13
39
27
21
87
0
0
0
0
44
31
24
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.33 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 2.76 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.012
threat score:
0.429 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.107 0.293 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.004 -0.009 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.125 0.853 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.691 0.000
samples: 14 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 12.96 %coverage: 100.00