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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
7
2
15
0
0
0
0
6
2
0
8
12
9
2
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
7
2
15
27
30
27
84
6
2
0
8
39
39
29
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
30
9
65
0
0
0
0
26
9
0
35
52
39
9
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
7
2
14
25
28
25
79
6
2
0
7
36
36
27
100

hitrate: 0.261 hitrate: 0.336
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 2.15 0.28
Heidke skill score: -0.109 Heidke skill score: 0.005
true Heidke skill score: -0.174 true Heidke skill score: -0.033
Kuipers skill score: -0.109 Kuipers skill score: 0.005
true Kuipers skill score: -0.193 true Kuipers skill score: -0.032
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.125 0.323 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.139 0.000 -0.075
equitable threat score:
0.013 -0.010 -0.062
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.154 0.769 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.643 1.000
samples: 23 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 21.50 %coverage: 100.00