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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
13
25
0
0
0
0
3
5
4
12
7
13
17
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
13
25
18
30
22
70
3
5
4
12
25
43
39
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
22
35
68
0
0
0
0
8
14
11
32
19
35
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
12
23
17
28
21
65
3
5
4
11
23
40
36
100

hitrate: 0.216 hitrate: 0.355
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.57 0.00 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.63 0.31
Heidke skill score: -0.176 Heidke skill score: 0.033
true Heidke skill score: -0.084 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: -0.176 Kuipers skill score: 0.033
true Kuipers skill score: -0.096 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.160
threat score:
0.087 0.361 0.085
equitable threat score:
-0.031 0.000 -0.078
equitable threat score:
-0.046 0.034 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.571 0.000 0.235
probability of detection:
0.160 0.698 0.103
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.840 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.840 0.571 0.667
samples: 37 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 34.58 %coverage: 100.00