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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
5
11
2
4
5
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
40
29
96
2
4
5
11
29
44
34
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
36
45
100
18
36
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
37
27
90
2
4
5
10
27
41
32
100

hitrate: 0.455 hitrate: 0.421
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.18 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.182 Heidke skill score: 0.131
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.182 Kuipers skill score: 0.131
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.029
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.455
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.009 0.041
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.909 0.147
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.583 0.545
samples: 11 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 10.28 %coverage: 100.00