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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
9
11
36
0
0
0
0
5
2
3
10
21
11
14
46

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
9
11
36
32
18
11
61
5
2
3
10
53
29
25
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
20
24
78
0
0
0
0
11
4
7
22
46
24
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
8
10
34
30
17
10
57
5
2
3
9
50
27
23
100

hitrate: 0.413 hitrate: 0.346
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.71 0.00 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.68 2.10 0.40
Heidke skill score: 0.120 Heidke skill score: 0.019
true Heidke skill score: -0.018 true Heidke skill score: 0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.120 Kuipers skill score: 0.019
true Kuipers skill score: -0.016 true Kuipers skill score: 0.004
threat score:
0.390 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.219 0.250 0.094
equitable threat score:
-0.018 0.000 -0.002
equitable threat score:
-0.033 0.026 0.022
probability of detection:
0.762 0.000 0.214
probability of detection:
0.302 0.621 0.120
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.000 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.705 0.700
samples: 46 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 42.99 %coverage: 100.00