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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
5
2
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
5
2
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
5
2
21
49
21
16
86
0
0
0
0
63
26
18
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
67
24
10
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
24
10
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
5
2
20
46
20
15
80
0
0
0
0
59
24
17
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.327
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 3.31 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.029
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.200 0.231 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.028 0.001 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.222 0.808 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.756 0.000
samples: 21 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 19.63 %coverage: 100.00