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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
3
2
16
0
0
0
0
4
2
3
9
15
5
5
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
3
2
16
26
33
24
83
4
2
3
9
41
38
29
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
44
12
8
64
0
0
0
0
16
8
12
36
60
20
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
3
2
15
24
31
22
77
4
2
3
8
38
35
27
100

hitrate: 0.560 hitrate: 0.435
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.07 0.00 1.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.39 2.18 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.340 Heidke skill score: 0.153
true Heidke skill score: 0.191 true Heidke skill score: 0.132
Kuipers skill score: 0.340 Kuipers skill score: 0.153
true Kuipers skill score: 0.186 true Kuipers skill score: 0.131
threat score:
0.550 0.000 0.273
threat score:
0.239 0.375 0.086
equitable threat score:
0.135 0.000 0.130
equitable threat score:
0.123 0.065 0.018
probability of detection:
0.733 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.268 0.868 0.103
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.312 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.312 0.602 0.667
samples: 25 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 23.15 %coverage: 100.00