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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
11
0
0
0
0
3
6
6
15
10
10
6
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
11
30
29
23
82
3
6
6
15
40
39
29
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
15
0
42
0
0
0
0
12
23
23
58
38
38
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
0
10
28
27
21
76
3
6
6
14
37
36
27
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.389
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.10 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 2.10 0.52
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.083
true Heidke skill score: 0.290 true Heidke skill score: 0.061
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.083
true Kuipers skill score: 0.314 true Kuipers skill score: 0.060
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.159 0.315 0.158
equitable threat score:
0.283 0.000 0.220
equitable threat score:
0.073 -0.010 0.058
probability of detection:
0.700 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.175 0.744 0.207
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.646 0.600
samples: 26 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 24.07 %coverage: 100.00