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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
3
11
0
0
0
0
8
4
0
12
13
7
3
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
3
11
27
33
25
85
8
4
0
12
40
40
28
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
13
13
48
0
0
0
0
35
17
0
52
57
30
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
3
10
25
31
23
79
7
4
0
11
37
37
26
100

hitrate: 0.217 hitrate: 0.352
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.85 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 2.12 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.174 Heidke skill score: 0.028
true Heidke skill score: -0.183 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: -0.174 Kuipers skill score: 0.028
true Kuipers skill score: -0.212 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.263 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.109 0.359 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.095 0.000 -0.117
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.025 -0.084
probability of detection:
0.385 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.125 0.825 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.545 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.545 0.612 1.000
samples: 23 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 21.30 %coverage: 100.00