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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
5
16
0
0
0
0
12
2
1
15
17
8
6
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
5
16
30
33
14
77
12
2
1
15
47
41
20
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
19
16
52
0
0
0
0
39
6
3
48
55
26
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
5
15
28
31
13
71
11
2
1
14
44
38
19
100

hitrate: 0.194 hitrate: 0.361
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.94 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.34 1.88 0.75
Heidke skill score: -0.210 Heidke skill score: 0.042
true Heidke skill score: -0.294 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: -0.210 Kuipers skill score: 0.042
true Kuipers skill score: -0.308 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.179 0.000 0.050
threat score:
0.086 0.388 0.029
equitable threat score:
-0.196 0.000 -0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.038 0.068 -0.057
probability of detection:
0.294 0.000 0.167
probability of detection:
0.106 0.805 0.050
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.688 0.000 0.933
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.688 0.571 0.933
samples: 31 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 28.70 %coverage: 100.00