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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
0
0
0
0
1
3
1
5
1
5
10
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
31
19
41
91
1
3
1
5
32
24
51
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
56
69
0
0
0
0
6
19
6
31
6
31
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
8
10
29
18
38
85
1
3
1
5
30
22
48
100

hitrate: 0.062 hitrate: 0.187
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
11.00 0.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.34 3.79 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.406 Heidke skill score: -0.220
true Heidke skill score: -0.231 true Heidke skill score: -0.075
Kuipers skill score: -0.406 Kuipers skill score: -0.220
true Kuipers skill score: -0.346 true Kuipers skill score: -0.090
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.071
threat score:
0.000 0.198 0.018
equitable threat score:
-0.061 0.000 -0.195
equitable threat score:
-0.083 -0.019 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.100
probability of detection:
0.000 0.792 0.020
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.791 0.800
samples: 16 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 14.95 %coverage: 100.00