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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
5
0
18
0
0
0
0
7
9
6
22
20
14
6
40

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
5
0
18
31
23
13
67
7
9
6
22
51
37
19
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
13
0
45
0
0
0
0
18
23
15
55
50
35
15
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
5
0
17
29
21
12
63
7
8
6
21
48
35
18
100

hitrate: 0.475 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.90 0.00 3.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 1.81 1.16
Heidke skill score: 0.212 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.242 true Heidke skill score: 0.089
Kuipers skill score: 0.212 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.277 true Kuipers skill score: 0.095
threat score:
0.520 0.000 0.273
threat score:
0.232 0.284 0.171
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.144
equitable threat score:
0.093 -0.003 0.067
probability of detection:
0.650 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.255 0.622 0.316
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.278 0.000 0.727
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.278 0.657 0.727
samples: 40 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 37.38 %coverage: 100.00