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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
5
16
0
0
0
0
1
2
13
16
10
4
18
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
5
16
22
30
23
75
1
2
13
16
32
34
41
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
6
16
50
0
0
0
0
3
6
41
50
31
13
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
5
15
21
28
21
70
1
2
12
15
30
32
38
100

hitrate: 0.688 hitrate: 0.486
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.60 0.00 0.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.21 0.39
Heidke skill score: 0.531 Heidke skill score: 0.229
true Heidke skill score: 0.444 true Heidke skill score: 0.239
Kuipers skill score: 0.531 Kuipers skill score: 0.229
true Kuipers skill score: 0.438 true Kuipers skill score: 0.243
threat score:
0.529 0.000 0.619
threat score:
0.231 0.380 0.295
equitable threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.123 0.112 0.181
probability of detection:
0.900 0.000 0.722
probability of detection:
0.281 0.882 0.317
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.438 0.000 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.438 0.600 0.188
samples: 32 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 29.91 %coverage: 100.00