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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
5
0
23
0
0
0
0
47
5
2
54
65
10
2
77

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
5
0
23
23
3
4
30
47
5
2
54
88
13
6
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
6
0
30
0
0
0
0
61
6
3
70
84
13
3
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
5
0
21
21
3
4
28
44
5
2
50
82
12
6
100

hitrate: 0.260 hitrate: 0.215
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 0.00 27.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.26 2.31 9.00
Heidke skill score: -0.110 Heidke skill score: -0.178
true Heidke skill score: -0.015 true Heidke skill score: -0.032
Kuipers skill score: -0.110 Kuipers skill score: -0.178
true Kuipers skill score: -0.039 true Kuipers skill score: -0.079
threat score:
0.257 0.000 0.037
threat score:
0.194 0.075 0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.000 0.011
equitable threat score:
-0.012 -0.018 -0.019
probability of detection:
0.277 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.205 0.231 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.217 0.000 0.963
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.217 0.900 0.963
samples: 77 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 71.96 %coverage: 100.00