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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199501

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
10
34
44
0
10
37
47

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
16
46
62
0
10
34
44
0
26
83
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
6
6
0
0
0
0
0
21
72
94
0
21
79
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
15
42
57
0
9
31
40
0
24
76
100

hitrate: 0.723 hitrate: 0.459
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.19
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.38 0.53
Heidke skill score: 0.585 Heidke skill score: 0.188
true Heidke skill score: -0.052 true Heidke skill score: 0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.585 Kuipers skill score: 0.188
true Kuipers skill score: -0.041 true Kuipers skill score: 0.043
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.723
threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.366
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.052
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.021 0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.919
probability of detection:
0.000 0.615 0.410
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.742 0.227
samples: 47 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 43.12 %coverage: 100.00