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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
2
3
5
1
20
17
38
2
22
20
44

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
11
19
39
69
1
20
17
38
13
39
56
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
5
7
11
2
45
39
86
5
50
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
10
18
36
64
1
19
16
35
12
36
52
100

hitrate: 0.455 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.23 1.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 1.77 0.68
Heidke skill score: 0.182 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.008 true Heidke skill score: -0.122
Kuipers skill score: 0.182 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.008 true Kuipers skill score: -0.122
threat score:
0.500 0.080 0.415
threat score:
0.077 0.213 0.221
equitable threat score:
0.488 -0.022 -0.011
equitable threat score:
0.068 -0.092 -0.047
probability of detection:
0.500 0.091 0.850
probability of detection:
0.077 0.487 0.304
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.553
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.725 0.553
samples: 44 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 40.74 %coverage: 100.00