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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
1
7
0
0
0
0
2
16
37
55
5
19
38
62

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
1
7
0
19
26
45
2
16
37
55
5
38
64
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
2
11
0
0
0
0
3
26
60
89
8
31
61
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
1
7
0
18
24
42
2
15
35
51
5
36
60
100

hitrate: 0.645 hitrate: 0.551
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.40 0.00 1.45
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.40 1.18 0.86
Heidke skill score: 0.468 Heidke skill score: 0.327
true Heidke skill score: 0.207 true Heidke skill score: 0.169
Kuipers skill score: 0.468 Kuipers skill score: 0.327
true Kuipers skill score: 0.176 true Kuipers skill score: 0.178
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.661
threat score:
0.333 0.297 0.451
equitable threat score:
0.289 0.000 0.148
equitable threat score:
0.308 0.063 0.084
probability of detection:
0.600 0.000 0.974
probability of detection:
0.600 0.500 0.578
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.000 0.327
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.578 0.327
samples: 62 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 57.94 %coverage: 100.00