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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
0
0
0
20
18
2
40
20
20
2
42

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
28
22
16
66
20
18
2
40
48
42
18
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
0
5
0
0
0
0
48
43
5
95
48
48
5
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
26
20
15
61
19
17
2
37
44
39
17
100

hitrate: 0.048 hitrate: 0.222
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 0.00 20.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 1.57 2.22
Heidke skill score: -0.429 Heidke skill score: -0.167
true Heidke skill score: -0.022 true Heidke skill score: -0.123
Kuipers skill score: -0.429 Kuipers skill score: -0.167
true Kuipers skill score: -0.038 true Kuipers skill score: -0.137
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.050
threat score:
0.000 0.256 0.036
equitable threat score:
-0.045 0.000 0.002
equitable threat score:
-0.018 -0.061 -0.095
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.524 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.950
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.950
samples: 42 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 38.89 %coverage: 100.00