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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
5
7
0
0
0
0
23
9
4
36
24
10
9
43

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
5
7
16
32
17
65
23
9
4
36
40
42
26
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
12
16
0
0
0
0
53
21
9
84
56
23
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
5
6
15
30
16
60
21
8
4
33
37
39
24
100

hitrate: 0.116 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 1.55 1.38
Heidke skill score: -0.326 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: -0.204 true Heidke skill score: 0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.326 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: -0.254 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.033 0.000 0.098
threat score:
0.022 0.427 0.069
equitable threat score:
-0.111 0.000 -0.106
equitable threat score:
-0.037 0.135 -0.095
probability of detection:
0.042 0.000 0.444
probability of detection:
0.025 0.762 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.000 0.889
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.508 0.889
samples: 43 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 39.81 %coverage: 100.00