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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
6
2
29
21
6
2
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
20
31
78
21
6
2
29
48
26
33
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
21
7
100
72
21
7
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
19
29
73
20
6
2
27
45
24
31
100

hitrate: 0.069 hitrate: 0.206
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 14.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 0.88
Heidke skill score: -0.397 Heidke skill score: -0.192
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.075
Kuipers skill score: -0.397 Kuipers skill score: -0.192
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.086
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.069
threat score:
0.000 0.238 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.016 -0.136
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.769 0.061
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.931
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.744 0.931
samples: 29 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 27.10 %coverage: 100.00