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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
11
4
25
0
0
0
0
0
4
28
32
10
15
32
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
11
4
25
15
15
21
51
0
4
28
32
25
30
53
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
19
7
44
0
0
0
0
0
7
49
56
18
26
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
10
4
23
14
14
19
47
0
4
26
30
23
28
49
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.491
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.70 0.60
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.236
true Heidke skill score: 0.452 true Heidke skill score: 0.240
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.236
true Kuipers skill score: 0.469 true Kuipers skill score: 0.256
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.778
threat score:
0.250 0.227 0.491
equitable threat score:
0.272 0.000 0.556
equitable threat score:
0.123 0.016 0.298
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.875
probability of detection:
0.400 0.500 0.528
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.000 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.706 0.125
samples: 57 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 52.78 %coverage: 100.00