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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
0
1
27
28
3
4
40
47
3
7
69
79

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
9
9
39
57
3
4
40
47
12
15
81
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
3
5
0
1
34
35
4
5
51
59
4
9
87
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
8
8
36
53
3
4
37
44
11
14
75
100

hitrate: 0.519 hitrate: 0.454
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 4.00 0.68
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 3.80 0.58
Heidke skill score: 0.278 Heidke skill score: 0.181
true Heidke skill score: -0.076 true Heidke skill score: 0.084
Kuipers skill score: 0.278 Kuipers skill score: 0.181
true Kuipers skill score: -0.149 true Kuipers skill score: 0.123
threat score:
0.000 0.029 0.526
threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.455
equitable threat score:
-0.022 -0.047 -0.030
equitable threat score:
-0.029 0.020 0.090
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 0.580
probability of detection:
0.000 0.600 0.494
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.964 0.149
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.842 0.149
samples: 79 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 73.15 %coverage: 100.00