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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
1
0
18
0
0
0
0
1
4
7
12
18
5
7
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
1
0
18
18
41
19
78
1
4
7
12
36
46
26
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
57
3
0
60
0
0
0
0
3
13
23
40
60
17
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
1
0
17
17
38
18
72
1
4
6
11
33
43
24
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.602
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.70 0.46
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: 0.403
true Heidke skill score: 0.634 true Heidke skill score: 0.347
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: 0.403
true Kuipers skill score: 0.622 true Kuipers skill score: 0.326
threat score:
0.895 0.000 0.583
threat score:
0.459 0.494 0.226
equitable threat score:
0.756 0.000 0.457
equitable threat score:
0.355 0.156 0.146
probability of detection:
0.944 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.472 0.891 0.269
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.056 0.000 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.056 0.474 0.417
samples: 30 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 27.78 %coverage: 100.00