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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
12
15
34
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
6
7
13
20
40

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
12
15
34
12
24
30
66
0
1
5
6
19
37
50
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
30
38
85
0
0
0
0
0
3
13
15
18
33
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
11
14
32
11
23
28
62
0
1
5
6
18
35
47
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.340
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.86 0.00 0.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.79 1.78 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.098 true Heidke skill score: 0.055
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.124 true Kuipers skill score: 0.061
threat score:
0.206 0.000 0.238
threat score:
0.152 0.304 0.098
equitable threat score:
0.037 0.000 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.023 0.017 0.045
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.368 0.649 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.794 0.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.794 0.636 0.167
samples: 40 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 37.74 %coverage: 100.00