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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
9
12
0
0
0
0
3
1
6
10
4
3
15
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
9
12
56
9
17
82
3
1
6
10
60
12
32
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
41
55
0
0
0
0
14
5
27
45
18
14
68
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
9
12
54
9
16
79
3
1
6
10
58
12
31
100

hitrate: 0.318 hitrate: 0.154
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.00 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 6.83 0.31
Heidke skill score: -0.023 Heidke skill score: -0.269
true Heidke skill score: -0.154 true Heidke skill score: -0.041
Kuipers skill score: -0.023 Kuipers skill score: -0.269
true Kuipers skill score: -0.188 true Kuipers skill score: -0.060
threat score:
0.067 0.000 0.316
threat score:
0.014 0.106 0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.092 0.000 -0.067
equitable threat score:
-0.092 -0.006 0.089
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.017 0.750 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.917 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.917 0.890 0.400
samples: 22 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 21.15 %coverage: 100.00