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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
1
11
0
0
0
0
0
5
4
9
0
15
5
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
1
11
33
26
25
84
0
5
4
9
33
41
30
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
50
5
55
0
0
0
0
0
25
20
45
0
75
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
1
11
32
25
24
81
0
5
4
9
32
39
29
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.288
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 2.05 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.067
true Heidke skill score: 0.099 true Heidke skill score: -0.142
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.067
true Kuipers skill score: 0.233 true Kuipers skill score: -0.134
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.263 0.114
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.226
equitable threat score:
-0.086 -0.108 0.043
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.634 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.690 0.556
samples: 20 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 19.23 %coverage: 100.00