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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
1
19
0
18
1
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
54
20
86
0
18
1
19
12
72
21
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
95
5
100
0
95
5
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
51
19
82
0
17
1
18
11
69
20
100

hitrate: 0.053 hitrate: 0.524
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 19.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.19 0.90
Heidke skill score: -0.421 Heidke skill score: 0.286
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.184
Kuipers skill score: -0.421 Kuipers skill score: 0.286
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.155
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.053
threat score:
0.000 0.519 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.110 -0.080
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.947
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.372 0.947
samples: 19 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 18.10 %coverage: 100.00