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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
0
10
0
0
1
1
3
4
7
14
11
6
8
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
0
10
70
3
7
80
3
4
7
14
81
9
14
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
32
8
0
40
0
0
4
4
12
16
28
56
44
24
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
0
10
67
3
7
77
3
4
7
13
78
9
13
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.173
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.91 0.17 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 8.89 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.240
true Heidke skill score: 0.370 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.240
true Kuipers skill score: 0.364 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.615 0.000 0.467
threat score:
0.096 0.035 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.419 -0.036 0.240
equitable threat score:
0.003 -0.050 0.268
probability of detection:
0.727 0.000 0.875
probability of detection:
0.099 0.333 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.962 0.500
samples: 25 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 24.04 %coverage: 100.00