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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
10
14
24
3
10
14
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
42
33
3
78
0
10
14
24
45
43
17
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
0
0
0
0
0
37
52
89
11
37
52
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
40
31
3
74
0
10
13
23
43
41
16
100

hitrate: 0.630 hitrate: 0.476
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 1.81 1.41
Heidke skill score: 0.444 Heidke skill score: 0.214
true Heidke skill score: 0.297 true Heidke skill score: 0.190
Kuipers skill score: 0.444 Kuipers skill score: 0.214
true Kuipers skill score: 0.269 true Kuipers skill score: 0.197
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.583
threat score:
0.067 0.375 0.519
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.135
equitable threat score:
0.039 0.019 0.438
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.767 0.824
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.577 0.417
samples: 27 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 25.71 %coverage: 100.00