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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
1
0
7
2
0
0
2
15
12
12
39
23
13
12
48

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
1
0
7
8
29
22
59
15
12
12
39
29
42
34
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
2
0
15
4
0
0
4
31
25
25
81
48
27
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
1
0
7
8
28
21
56
14
11
11
37
28
40
32
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.448
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 0.15 3.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 1.40 1.15
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.171
true Heidke skill score: 0.127 true Heidke skill score: 0.132
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.171
true Kuipers skill score: 0.143 true Kuipers skill score: 0.128
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.308
threat score:
0.200 0.403 0.197
equitable threat score:
0.128 -0.037 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.145 0.112 -0.013
probability of detection:
0.261 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.207 0.690 0.353
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.143 1.000 0.692
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.143 0.508 0.692
samples: 48 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 45.71 %coverage: 100.00