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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
21
1
27
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
5
22
1
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
21
1
27
23
49
5
77
0
1
0
1
28
71
6
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
75
4
96
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
4
18
79
4
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
20
1
26
22
47
5
73
0
1
0
1
27
68
6
100

hitrate: 0.179 hitrate: 0.514
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.40 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.96 1.08 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.232 Heidke skill score: 0.271
true Heidke skill score: 0.006 true Heidke skill score: -0.117
Kuipers skill score: -0.232 Kuipers skill score: 0.271
true Kuipers skill score: 0.015 true Kuipers skill score: -0.108
threat score:
0.185 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.100 0.495 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.008 0.000 -0.018
equitable threat score:
-0.051 -0.065 -0.008
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.179 0.690 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.815 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.815 0.364 1.000
samples: 28 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 26.67 %coverage: 100.00