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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
11
35
49
3
11
35
49

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
21
28
56
3
11
35
49
10
32
63
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
22
71
100
6
22
71
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
20
27
53
3
10
33
47
10
30
60
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.533
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.75 0.78
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: 0.300
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.163
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: 0.300
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.169
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.714
threat score:
0.000 0.313 0.455
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.079 0.118
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.656 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.625 0.286
samples: 49 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 46.67 %coverage: 100.00