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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
13
1
18
0
0
0
0
0
10
24
34
4
23
25
52

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
13
1
18
2
18
33
53
0
10
24
34
6
41
58
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
25
2
35
0
0
0
0
0
19
46
65
8
44
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
12
1
17
2
17
31
50
0
10
23
32
6
39
55
100

hitrate: 0.538 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.50 0.00 1.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.29 0.59
Heidke skill score: 0.308 Heidke skill score: 0.157
true Heidke skill score: 0.300 true Heidke skill score: 0.085
Kuipers skill score: 0.308 Kuipers skill score: 0.157
true Kuipers skill score: 0.348 true Kuipers skill score: 0.097
threat score:
0.222 0.000 0.686
threat score:
0.200 0.237 0.353
equitable threat score:
0.157 0.000 0.410
equitable threat score:
0.157 -0.049 0.106
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.960
probability of detection:
0.667 0.439 0.414
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.000 0.294
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.660 0.294
samples: 52 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 49.52 %coverage: 100.00