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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
1
1
20
22
5
1
20
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
62
10
7
79
1
1
20
22
67
11
27
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
0
0
15
0
0
0
0
4
4
77
85
19
4
77
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
59
10
7
75
1
1
19
21
64
10
26
100

hitrate: 0.923 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 0.00 1.10
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 7.18 0.81
Heidke skill score: 0.885 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.759 true Heidke skill score: 0.198
Kuipers skill score: 0.885 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.656 true Kuipers skill score: 0.323
threat score:
0.800 0.000 0.909
threat score:
0.060 0.125 0.690
equitable threat score:
0.764 0.000 0.606
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.024 0.614
probability of detection:
0.800 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.060 0.909 0.741
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.873 0.091
samples: 26 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 24.76 %coverage: 100.00