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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
3
3
20
14
3
3
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
39
17
85
14
3
3
20
43
42
20
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
70
15
15
100
70
15
15
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
37
16
81
13
3
3
19
41
40
19
100

hitrate: 0.150 hitrate: 0.400
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 6.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.02 1.00
Heidke skill score: -0.275 Heidke skill score: 0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.062
Kuipers skill score: -0.275 Kuipers skill score: 0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.063
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.150
threat score:
0.000 0.443 0.081
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.093 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.150
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.850
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.541 0.850
samples: 20 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00