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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
20
4
1
25
0
0
0
0
3
17
9
29
23
21
10
54

contingency table
fcst
obs
20
4
1
25
22
24
5
51
3
17
9
29
45
45
15
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
37
7
2
46
0
0
0
0
6
31
17
54
43
39
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
4
1
24
21
23
5
49
3
16
9
28
43
43
14
100

hitrate: 0.537 hitrate: 0.505
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.09 0.00 2.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 1.13 1.93
Heidke skill score: 0.306 Heidke skill score: 0.257
true Heidke skill score: 0.342 true Heidke skill score: 0.238
Kuipers skill score: 0.306 Kuipers skill score: 0.257
true Kuipers skill score: 0.380 true Kuipers skill score: 0.253
threat score:
0.714 0.000 0.300
threat score:
0.400 0.333 0.257
equitable threat score:
0.539 0.000 0.147
equitable threat score:
0.236 0.043 0.157
probability of detection:
0.870 0.000 0.900
probability of detection:
0.444 0.533 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.000 0.690
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.529 0.690
samples: 54 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 51.43 %coverage: 100.00