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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
25
15
8
48
0
0
0
0
7
6
11
24
32
21
19
72

contingency table
fcst
obs
25
15
8
48
19
9
5
33
7
6
11
24
51
30
24
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
21
11
67
0
0
0
0
10
8
15
33
44
29
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
24
14
8
46
18
9
5
31
7
6
10
23
49
29
23
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 1.26
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.94 1.10 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.188 true Heidke skill score: 0.101
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.179 true Kuipers skill score: 0.102
threat score:
0.455 0.000 0.344
threat score:
0.338 0.167 0.297
equitable threat score:
0.109 0.000 0.182
equitable threat score:
0.033 -0.010 0.175
probability of detection:
0.781 0.000 0.579
probability of detection:
0.490 0.300 0.458
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.479 0.000 0.542
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.479 0.727 0.542
samples: 72 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 68.57 %coverage: 100.00