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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
5
11
0
0
0
0
0
8
12
20
1
13
17
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
5
11
12
27
35
74
0
8
12
20
13
40
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
16
16
35
0
0
0
0
0
26
39
65
3
42
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
5
10
11
26
33
70
0
8
11
19
12
38
50
100

hitrate: 0.419 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
11.00 0.00 1.18
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.85 1.85 0.38
Heidke skill score: 0.129 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.085 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.129 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.104 true Kuipers skill score: 0.009
threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.480
threat score:
0.043 0.310 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.061 0.000 0.074
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.020 0.042
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.706
probability of detection:
0.077 0.675 0.231
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.909 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.909 0.635 0.400
samples: 31 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 29.52 %coverage: 100.00