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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
4
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
5
7
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
4
9
19
67
7
93
0
0
3
3
19
72
14
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
42
33
75
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
0
42
58
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
4
9
18
64
7
89
0
0
3
3
18
69
13
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.667
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 1.29 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.500
true Heidke skill score: 0.122 true Heidke skill score: 0.107
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.500
true Kuipers skill score: 0.214 true Kuipers skill score: 0.083
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.684 0.214
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.238
equitable threat score:
-0.062 0.094 0.191
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.429
probability of detection:
0.000 0.931 0.214
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.280 0.000
samples: 12 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 11.43 %coverage: 100.00