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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
1
6
0
7
4
6
0
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
68
12
15
95
1
6
0
7
72
18
15
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
0
0
30
0
0
0
0
10
60
0
70
40
60
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
65
11
14
90
1
6
0
7
69
17
14
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.143
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 5.28 0.47
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.286
true Heidke skill score: 0.205 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.286
true Kuipers skill score: 0.375 true Kuipers skill score: -0.086
threat score:
0.750 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.042 0.119 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.643 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.013 -0.051 -0.048
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.042 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.874 1.000
samples: 10 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 9.52 %coverage: 100.00